Coal's Decline and the Critical Minerals Revolution
For millennia, mining has served as the foundational bedrock of human civilization, providing the essential materials that enable technological progress and economic development. Today, this ancient industry stands at a historic crossroads, caught between two competing realities. On one hand, coal—long the dominant force in energy generation and mining employment—faces an unprecedented decline as renewable energy becomes increasingly cost-competitive. On the other hand, the global transition to clean energy is driving soaring demand for a new suite of critical minerals essential for solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles 1 3 .
The mining sector is undergoing significant upheaval as it adapts to new economic realities, technological disruptions, and shifting global priorities. According to industry analyses, the top risks and opportunities for mining and metals companies in 2025 reflect these dramatic changes 1 .
| Rank | Risk/Opportunity | Key Aspects | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital | Balancing discipline with growth, diverse financing sources, M&A activity | Maintained |
| 2 | Environmental Stewardship | Waste management, water conservation, nature-positive initiatives | Rising |
| 3 | Geopolitics | Resource nationalism, changing tax rules, ownership rights | Rising |
| 4 | Resource & Reserve Depletion | Declining ore grades, exploration challenges, new extraction technologies | New Entry |
| 5 | License to Operate | Community relations, Indigenous partnerships, mine closure legacy | Maintained |
| 6 | Rising Costs & Productivity | Labor expenses, skills shortages, energy costs | Maintained |
| 7 | Climate Change | Scope 1 & 2 emissions reduction, net-zero challenges | Maintained |
| 8 | New Projects | Regulatory hurdles, capital intensity, skilled worker shortages | New Entry |
| 9 | Changing Business Models | Integration across value chain, recycling operations | Maintained |
| 10 | Innovation | Exploration technology, processing improvements, collaboration | Maintained |
The dropping out of workforce issues from the top 10 risks is particularly concerning given that nearly half of the current mining workforce will reach retirement age by 2029, creating potentially severe labor shortages .
The economic case for coal has been steadily eroding as renewable energy technologies mature and scale up. The most accurate method for comparing different energy sources is the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), which represents the average cost per megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity generated over a project's lifetime 6 .
The recent closure of Merrimack Station, New England's final coal-fired power plant, offers a compelling case study in the economic forces reshaping electricity generation 4 .
Merrimack Station begins operations with high capacity utilization.
Plant operates at 70-80% capacity factor, running frequently to meet energy demand.
Capacity factor plummets to below 8%. In 2024, one unit operates for just 25.4 hours.
Plant fails to secure contract in regional capacity auction, sealing its fate.
Site may host solar and storage facilities, continuing energy legacy with renewables.
Capacity Factor Over Time
"The plant's demise resulted primarily from economic pressures. As a regional grid operator increasingly called on the cheapest power sources first, Merrimack Station—being among the most expensive options—was used less and less 4 ."
Analysis indicates that offshore wind power is particularly well-suited to replace Merrimack Station's contribution, especially during winter months when the plant was most active 4 .
As coal declines, the mining industry faces unprecedented demand for minerals critical to clean energy technologies. The scale of this demand is staggering: over the next 30 years, the sector will need to produce more mineral ores than humans have extracted over the last 70,000 years to support the energy transition 1 3 .
Minerals needed for renewable energy, storage technologies, and transmission infrastructure 3 .
Lithium, cobalt, phosphate, and nickel for battery storage and electric vehicles 3 .
Steel, copper, aluminum, zinc, and other metals for construction and manufacturing 3 .
A significant challenge in meeting this demand is the geographic concentration of both mineral reserves and processing capabilities 3 .
China dominates many critical mineral supply chains, responsible for more than 50% of production for 18 minerals and having a greater-than-10% concentration of reserves for 35 additional minerals 3 .
As high-grade mineral deposits become increasingly scarce, innovation in extracting metals from lower-grade ores and waste materials has become essential. One promising breakthrough is Rio Tinto's Nuton™ technology, named for the nut-shaped bacteria central to its process, which offers significantly improved copper recovery rates from challenging ore types 1 .
Crushed copper-bearing ore is stacked in heaps or placed in specially designed bioreactors, creating optimal conditions for bacterial activity.
A carefully calibrated solution containing specific strains of iron-oxidizing and sulfur-oxidizing bacteria is applied to the ore.
The bacteria catalyze the oxidation of iron and sulfur compounds in the ore, generating heat and producing sulfuric acid and ferric iron as byproducts.
The acidic ferric iron solution acts as a potent oxidant, dissolving copper minerals and releasing copper ions into solution.
The copper-rich solution is collected and directed to a conventional solvent extraction and electrowinning plant, where high-purity copper cathodes are produced.
The depleted solution is recharged with additional bacteria and nutrients before being recirculated to the ore stack, creating a continuous process.
| Reagent/Material | Function in Process | Scientific Principle |
|---|---|---|
| Iron-oxidizing bacteria | Oxidizes ferrous iron to ferric iron | Creates powerful oxidizing agent that dissolves copper minerals |
| Sulfur-oxidizing bacteria | Oxidizes sulfur compounds to sulfuric acid | Generates acidic environment necessary for bioleaching |
| Nutrient solution | Supports bacterial growth and metabolism | Provides essential nutrients for microbial communities |
| Aeration system | Supplies oxygen for bacterial respiration | Maintains aerobic conditions for optimal microbial activity |
The image of the soot-covered coal miner represents an increasingly small fraction of modern mining employment, but the industry continues to offer significant career opportunities for workers with diverse skillsets. The US mining sector is currently grappling with a significant labor shortage, exacerbated by a wave of upcoming retirements—nearly half of the current workforce will retire by 2029 .
The mining workforce of the future requires different skills than in previous generations. While entry-level roles such as equipment operators and general laborers may still require only a high school diploma, technical positions increasingly demand specialized education in fields like geology, mining engineering, environmental science, and automation technology .
The mining industry stands at a pivotal moment in its long history, balancing contradictory forces of decline and opportunity. Coal, once the undisputed king of both energy generation and mining employment, faces irreversible decline due to compelling economic and environmental pressures. Yet this decline coincides with unprecedented demand for critical minerals essential to clean energy technologies and sustainable infrastructure.
This transformation represents not the end of mining, but its reinvention. The industry must navigate complex challenges including geopolitical tensions, resource depletion, environmental responsibilities, and workforce transitions.
Success will require unprecedented innovation, collaboration, and adaptation—from developing new extraction technologies like bioleaching to forging stronger community relationships and implementing more sustainable business models.
The path forward will not be simple, but mining's fundamental role in human civilization remains secure. As the industry provides the essential materials that enable our transition to a cleaner energy future, it continues its ancient使命—unearthing the resources that power human progress, now with greater responsibility and sophistication than ever before.
The prospects and threats facing mining are ultimately reflections of our broader societal transition toward a more sustainable relationship with our planet's finite resources.